This report on the State of the American Electorate in 2017 was commissioned as a part of Voice’s ongoing efforts to better understand the evolving views and values that are driving the American electorate.

Through analysis of both qualitative and quantitative research performed by The Winston Group in May and June of 2017, this report:

• Uncovers some of the most significant underlying factors that are fueling hyper-partisanship, nativism, racism, distrust of government, and other cultural anxieties among the public;

• Identifies areas of potential consensus, including shared beliefs, concerns, and desired outcomes that could be leveraged to help overcome our deep divisions; and

• Raises new questions about conflicting beliefs and values and what those conflicts mean for the future of our government, political parties, and democracy.

The qualitative research part of this project consisted of four focus groups: Republicans, women with children, Independents, and middle-income voters. The quantitative research included an online survey of 1,000 registered voters. Analysis in this report is based on how voters self-identified their ideology on the national survey—including ‘very/somewhat conservative’ voters, ‘moderates’, and ‘very/somewhat liberal’ voters.

Download a PDF of the report: “2017 State of the Electorate”

These findings are by no means definitive answers to the challenges facing our political system, nor do the findings or views expressed in this report reflect those of Democracy Fund Voice.

Democracy Fund Voice remains committed to supporting research that helps leaders from across the political spectrum engage with voters in ways that address underlying anxieties and frustrations and help promote a deeper understanding of an increasingly diverse and divided America.

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ABOUT DAVID WINSTON:

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group. Winston has been an advisor to Senate and House Republican leadership for the past 15 years and was the Director of Planning for then Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. He advises center-right political parties throughout Europe and was the keynote speaker at the 2012 G8 Presiding Officer summit.

In the business sector, he advises Fortune 100 companies on strategic planning, brand reputation, and public policy issues; he has conducted public policy research for foundations and non-profit organizations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Congressional Institute. He was also a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation where he specialized in statistical policy analysis and econometric modeling.

Winston has lectured widely including The Wharton of School of Business, MIT, Harvard, and the National War College. His writings have appeared in a variety of publications, including the International Wall Street Journal, Brookings Review, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, and The Washington Post. He is credited for originating the concept of “security mom.”

Winston is currently an election analyst for CBS News and a contributing author to Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group.

Type of Activity: General Operating Support
Grantee: Stand Up Republic
Amount: Updated to $950,000 in 2021 — originally approved as $500,000 in 2019

What is Stand Up Republic?

Stand Up Republic is an organization founded by Evan McMullin and Mindy Finn to usher in a new era of civic engagement to defend democratic institutions and ideals in America. The organization seeks to build and organize a grassroots movement in defense of liberty, equality, and truth in America while upholding the Constitution and defending the democratic norms and institutions upon which the protection of our basic rights depend.

Why do we think this organization is important?

This organization is confronting and engaging in important work to protect the norms of our democracy and push back against dangerous demagoguery in our politics.

Stand Up Republic’s projects include promoting dialogue to guarantee a more inclusive America, executive oversight (particularly related to Article I), First Amendment protections, and individual rights. By supporting Stand Up Republic we support efforts to empower individuals to stand for their principles and for preserving our republic. Stand Up Republic seeks to achieve its mission through creative education, leadership development, national movement building, and advocacy.

How is Democracy Fund Voice supporting Stand Up Republic?

In 2019, Democracy Fund Voice approved a grant of $500,000 to Stand Up Republic. In 2020, an amendment was approved to increase the amount of the grant by $250,000 for the additional work needed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and in 2021 an amendment was approved to increase the amount of the grant by $200,000, for a total of $950,000. Previous grants included $475,000 in 2018 and $550,000 in 2017.

The tone and tenor of the 2016 election and the increasingly charged ideological debate in the United States have left many Americans feeling disconnected and disoriented. To bring our country together and move beyond divisive rhetoric, we need to better understand the anxieties that people are experiencing. Stranger in my Own Country is the first in a series of studies seeking to better understand the factors that are motivating nativism, racism, and other cultural anxieties among the American electorate.

The findings in this study are the product of in-depth interviews, a national public opinion survey, and message testing carried out by a group of Republican-led researchers in the fall of 2016 as a part of an effort to better understand the attitudes driving the behavior of supporters of Donald Trump.

Our preliminary findings revealed deep cultural anxiety around four themes:

1. Americanism: Fear of losing core, defining values that make America unique.
2. Race: Fear that demographic change is weakening community ties and excluding people.
3. Immigration: Fear of losing control of our borders and endangering ourselves.
4. Islam: Fear of letting people into the country who are hostile to America.

Our findings suggest that the recent rise in populism and nativism among voters is driven by feelings of disaffection and alienation from America’s core institutions and culture. These voters feel disconnected from government, community, and a “new” America they aren’t comfortable with. However, the research offers hope that targeted messages on pride and unity in America can create significant movement in key attitudes among these voters that may help fewer Americans feel like strangers in their own country.

Please view our slideshow below, download a PDF of the presentation, or check out our fact sheet on key findings.

Our research team included:

• PROJECT LEAD: Mindy Finn, Civic entrepreneur, former strategist for the RNC, NRSC, Mitt Romney, and George W. Bush;
• RESEARCH LEAD: Alex Lundry, co-founder and Chief Data Scientist at Deep Root Analytics, and ran analytics for Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush;
• PROJECT ASSOCIATE: Kelsey Jarrett, former member of the Google+ Political Partnerships Team, former digital strategist for the NRSC and the RNC;
• RESEARCHERS: Lisa Dropkin, Stacia Tipton and Karen Emmerson at Edge Research; Patrick Ruffini and Kristen Soltis Anderson at Echelon Insights; and Emily Ekins at the Cato Institute

The initial findings described here are the product of three pieces of research focused on the attitudes of strong supporters of now President Donald Trump during the 2016 election cycle. First, hour-long, in-depth interviews were conducted by Edge Research with voters in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Then, a national survey was conducted by Echelon Insights that oversampled whites without a college degree was used to quantify attitudes observed in the earlier interviews. Finally, researchers from the Cato Institute tested how voters respond to digital and print media to see what kinds of messages could impact attitudes towards Muslim Americans.

The results conveyed in this presentation are by no means definitive, but rather the first step in our effort to understand the current positions of the electorate. Over the coming months, Democracy Fund Voice will continue to ask difficult questions and support the efforts of researchers and leaders across the political spectrum to engage with voters in ways that address underlying anxieties, frustrations, and concerns, resulting in greater unity and understanding among an increasingly diverse America.